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Challenger crash at Truckee/Tahoe 7/26/21

 
Audio does not indicate any trouble with the aircraft

 
These appear to be the relevant METARs:

KTRK 262050Z AUTO 28011G16KT 04SM BKN023 33/08 A3013 FU RMK VIS 3 1/2/V5 FU BKN023 ACFT MSHP
KTRK 261945Z AUTO 09005KT 04SM BKN023 32/06 A3014 FU RMK VIS 3 1/2/V5 FU BKN023
 
Low visibility caused accelerated stall?
 
thejanitor said:
Low visibility caused accelerated stall?
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Something like that would be my guess since everything sounded normal until the crash. Perhaps a too slow and steep of a turn trying to keep the runway in sight. I also wonder about the possibility of a wind shear combined with being too slow. The controller said the winds were calm, but the first METAR posted above doesn't concur.
 
The two METARs bracketing the time of the accident show that the wind picked up a great deal during that hour.
 
jhempel said:
Something like that would be my guess since everything sounded normal until the crash. Perhaps a too slow and steep of a turn trying to keep the runway in sight. I also wonder about the possibility of a wind shear combined with being too slow. The controller said the winds were calm, but the first METAR posted above doesn't concur.
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There are indications and reports that visibility was deteriorating and there was a report of "cells" in the area
 
Cap'n Ron said:
Anyone know why they overflew the airport and then did a racetrack back?
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They did not do that.
flightaware.com

N605TR Flight Tracking and History 26-Jul-2021 (KCOE-KTRK) - FlightAware

Track N605TR flight from Coeur D'Alene/Pappy Boyington Fld to Truckee-Tahoe
flightaware.com flightaware.com

They flew in, got assigned a hold for some reason, as they were making the first circuit on the hold they were cleared for the RANV 20 with circle to land 11. There was no overflight of the Truckee airport on the flight track
 
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In examining the track plot from FlightAware and the approach chart, it all looks pretty bizarre. The originally crossed the IF (AWEGA) at FL200 (8000 feet higher than called for at that point) and continued south at that altitude almost to the FAF before beginning a descending right turn back to the north working well south of the published MA hold at AWEGA. They flew a descending path north back up to abeam AWEGA, and there began a descending right turn back to join the final approach still about 4000 feet high. Continuing to descend, they passed the FAF about 1200 feet high and the last stepdown about 400 feet with a 2000 ft/min descent rate -- all in all, far from a stabilized approach, and totally contrary to the rules regarding the approach (requiring that they arrive at the IF within 90 degrees of the FAC at the IF altitude).

All pretty ugly.
 
jhempel said:
...The controller said the winds were calm, but the first METAR posted above doesn't concur.
Click to expand...
The first article posted above said the accident occurred shortly after 1:00 PM (2000Z). Aviationweather.gov lists the most recent METARs first. The second one on the list (1945Z) was the one before the accident, and gave the wind as 09005KT, which is not that far from being calm.
 
Doesn't look like the preliminary addresses or even identifies the issues I discussed above in post #11. Anyone got a link to the actual preliminary?
 
No mention there of the issues I pointed out. Perhaps that would be too much like a finding or conclusion, but variation from the published procedure seems to me a fact worthy of mention.
 
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